What this post is about:
Every year, Bill D’Alessandro and I predict where eCommerce is headed. Here are our 11 predictions for 2026, covering everything from AI advertising to tariffs to the fate of lifestyle e-commerce brands.
- My 5 Predictions for 2026
- Bill’s 6 Predictions for 2026
- Why it’s time for a steak dinner this year
A quick note on the stakes: last year we were called out for being too generous with our 2025 predictions. Fair criticism. So this year we’ll hand over the transcript to Claude and Grok at the end of 2026 and let the AI declare the winner.
The loser buys the winner a steak dinner. And feed them the first bite. (Much humiliation).
Here’s what I’m betting on:
My predictions
1. LLM will launch ad platforms that will make Meta targeting look primitive.
Meta knows your interests. ChatGPT knows you’re worried that your business partner is resenting you, that you’ve Googled “signs of burnout” four times this month, and that you’re a bad quarter away from seriously considering selling.
When OpenAI launches ads, targeting won’t just be precise. He will feel telepathic. They are winning soon.
2. Tariffs on China will stabilize between 30-50%, not higher.
Inflation is creeping up and economic growth looks moderate. Trump is responding to the markets, and when the bond market went crazy earlier this year, the tariffs quickly returned. I can’t see him taking a shot at a wounded economy when things are already shaky.
3. The AI bubble will not burst in 2026.
Here against the prevailing opinion. NASDAQ’s forward PE is currently around 27x. During the tech bubble of 2000, it was north of 100x. Government spending on AI is also roughly 5x higher than technology spending in 2000, adjusted for inflation. The basics look different this time.
4. Major platforms will begin testing “verified people” content badges.
I recently created a new X account and was shocked. About a third of the videos in my feed looked like AI. Trust is rapidly declining. I think we’ll see at least one big platform experiment with certifying content as human-made this year.
5. Video and audio editing will be largely automated at 7/10 quality.
Descript can almost do it now. By the end of the year, I think you’ll be able to feed raw footage into the AI, tell it what matters, and get a polished edit back. Scrappy’s founders will produce content that previously required a full production team.
Bill’s predictions
1. 2026 will be the year of the K-shaped economy.
Big tech and Mag 7 continue to run, possibly up another 20%+, while the real economy and the average consumer struggle. When it comes to e-commerce, Bill thinks you either have to sell upmarket to affluent consumers or go down with sharp prices on the basics. The middle is dangerous.
2. Inflation will be north of 3% in 2026.
Bill sees no political will to cut spending, which means continued deficit spending, which means inflation. He thinks it will be sticky for the next decade, not just 2026. His advice: place your portfolio and your business in a permanent inflationary environment.
3. AI will completely take over meta ad content.
Bill has seen proof of concept big brands running pipelines churning out 100 new ads a day. AI reads reviews, pulls brand assets, generates photos and soon videos, and runs directly through an API. They think it will become mainstream in 2026.
4. The lifestyle brand is dead.
If you don’t have strong IP protection or a top 5-10% brand, a single digit million eCommerce businesses will be destroyed. Bigger players building AI-powered machines will outspend you, outperform you, and tolerate higher CACs than you can.
5. M&A will break up gangs at the highest level and anemia at the lower level.
Businesses over $1 billion grew 19% year-over-year. Offers in small and medium sizes fell by 18%. Bill thinks this will continue: top-tier businesses will command staggering multiples, while typical eCommerce brands struggle to do business at all.
6. Bitcoin falls below $70,000 but ends above $100,000.
Bill sees competing pressures: a struggling consumer hurts bitcoin as a risk asset, but inflation helps bitcoin as digital gold. He thinks volatility comes in the first half of the year with a dip below $70,000 and then recovers as the inflation story takes hold.
You can listen to the whole episode here.
When OpenAI launches ads, targeting won’t just be precise. He will feel telepathic.
Do you want a real look into the future?
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