A year ago, Bill D’Alessandro and I sat down to record our predictions for 2025. We called out everything from Trump’s tariff policy to Google’s search dominance.
For many years, reassessing predictions is a humbling exercise. We’ve had some absolute stinkers in the past – predictions so off the mark they’re almost impressive in their incorrectness.
How are we doing in 2025? Read on to find out.
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Prediction #1: Trump = Tariffs + Tax Cuts
My call: Trump would increase tariffs on China by around 10% and we would see tax policies such as extending the QBI and further tax cuts.
What happened: I caught the direction, but greatly underestimated the size. Chinese tariffs started at 150% before settling around 30-40% effective rates. My “credible 10%” call wasn’t even on the field.
My “credible 10%” call wasn’t even on the field. Chinese tariffs started at 150% before settling around 30-40% effective rates.
I got it done on the tax front. The Big Beautiful Bill passed with the QBI expansion and additional business-friendly tax cuts as predicted.
Rating: 8/10. Right on trend, wrong on the scale.
#2: Google shows first real weakness
My call: Google would drop below 90% search market share for the first time in 10 years as AI assistants like ChatGPT steal queries.
What happened: Google has fallen below 90% in early 2025 – the first time it has fallen below that mark in a decade. For a brief moment it looked like the prediction would come out perfectly.
But Google didn’t roll over. The Gemini 3 proved to be legitimately powerful and did an impressive job of integrating AI into search. The armor cracked but was quickly patched up.
Rating: 6/10. They tripped but recovered faster than I expected.
#3: SEO for AI LLMs is emerging
My call: A new industry would be born around ranking in ChatGPT, Claude and other AI models – basically SEO for big language models.
What happened: “GEO” (Generative Engine Optimization) is now a real thing. Terrible name, but the discipline exists. Tools have launched, consultants are selling services, people are talking about it at conferences.
Is it groundbreaking? Not yet. Most of it still looks like traditional SEO in disguise. But the industry emerged exactly as expected.
Rating: 10/10. He called it.
#4: Bitcoin Strategic Reserve
My call: The US would set an explicit stance on Bitcoin reserves and BTC would end the year around $150,000.
What happened: We hold seized bitcoin instead of liquidating it, which is something. But we do not actively buy into the treasury.
Bitcoin touched $125,000 – close to my $150,000 call – before falling to around $90,000, where it is today.
Half right to reserve position. Very wrong with the price.
Rating: 5/10. This one stings.
#5: Nuclear power is re-emerging
My call: The massive power demand from AI data centers would push nuclear power back into the limelight as a viable energy solution.
What happened: Four executive orders to support nuclear power in May. Global nuclear investments increased by around 10% year-on-year.
This was the safest bet of my five predictions – pretty obvious if you’ve been paying attention to the AI’s energy appetite. But I called it right.
Rating: 9/10. Accurate, if not particularly daring.
Bill’s predictions for 2025
Bill D’Alessandro has been my partner in crime for predictions for the last decade. Here is a recap and overview of his predictions made a year ago:
#1: Offshoring takes off, staffing changes the model
Bill’s call: The man-in-the-middle staffing agency model would give way to traditional placement for international staff. E-commerce brands would increasingly hire international firms through direct placement instead of constantly expanding headcount.
What happened: Hiring internationally is now absolutely default. Bill doesn’t know a single entrepreneur who wouldn’t hire an international first for most roles.
However, man-in-the-middle agencies still reap huge profits. The placement model is catching on, but it hasn’t taken off through the industry in the way Bill predicted. Moving in the right direction, just slower than expected.
Bill’s grade: 50%. Direction right, speed wrong.
#2: Margins increase, advertising costs increase to consume
Bill’s call: Artificial intelligence and offshoring would make teams leaner and increase margins. But since Meta and Amazon run competitive auctions, increased profitability would increase CPA as sellers bid more aggressively.
What happened: It turned out exactly as expected. CAC increased by double digits in 2025. CPMs grew by double digits across Meta and Amazon.
Bill called it “the most brilliant business model in the world” and it turns out to be diabolical. Any margin gains that businesses squeeze out are immediately plowed back into advertising spending. The auction model dynamically expands to capture the surplus.
Bill called it “the most brilliant business model in the world” and it turns out to be diabolical. Any profits from margins are immediately plowed back into advertising spend.
This trend will accelerate in 2026 and beyond.
Bill’s grade: A+ / 10 out of 10. Passed.
#3: Production ownership becomes a critical moat
Bill’s Call: Vertical integration, especially US manufacturing, would become essential for better margins, faster innovation, stronger IP and supply chain control.
What Happened: Everyone in Bill’s network is building factories or moving aggressively toward vertical integration. Tariffs have accelerated this trend, but the real drivers are control, speed and strategic advantage.
As AI commoditizes marketing and content creation, the product is increasingly becoming the only real thing. Owning production gives you the ability to iterate faster and protect your differentiation.
As AI commoditizes marketing and content creation, the product is increasingly becoming the only real thing.
Bill’s grade: A- to 10/10. On the spot.
#4: Amazon Haul powers a two-tier ecosystem
Bill’s call: Amazon Haul (their mobile, ultra-cheap direct-from-China section) would succeed and become a home for off-brand bargains. Amazon.com will tighten policies on unbranded overseas sellers and focus on vetted products registered under the brand.
What happened: Tariffs beat this forecast before it could gain momentum. The de minimis reform also destroyed the direct shipping model from China that Haul relied on.
There are early signs of a crackdown, with Amazon now reporting Chinese sellers to the Chinese government for taxation, a huge win for US-based sellers. But overall it didn’t turn out the way Bill expected.
Bill’s Grade: 2-3/10. A clear mistake, mostly due to policy changes that Bill didn’t foresee.
#5: Crypto and Stock Markets
Bill’s call: Bitcoin would have touched $150,000 but ended below $100,000 after hype overcame subsequent politics. The S&P would rise 20% mid-year on animal spirits and M&A activity, then give back gains to finish flat if Doge’s efficiency efforts actually materialize.
What happened: Bitcoin hit $125,000 and fell to around $87,000 today. The hype-then-crash formula was dead on, though he didn’t give exact numbers.
The S&P is up 16-17% year-to-date and is holding strong, not flat as expected. Why? Because the Doge’s austerity efforts turned out to be a “giant nothing burger” – zero real cuts, massive spending, no impact on risk assets.
Bill’s logic was correct: no austerity means risky assets will remain elevated. He just bet that the savings would actually happen.
Bill’s grade: A-. I got the bitcoin formula right, partly right in the markets.
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This was legitimately our best year for predictions. Can we do it again?
This Friday on the Podcast: Bill and I record our predictions for 2026, including a rather ridiculous bet to see who is more accurate this year. The loser buys the winner a steak – as rated by the AI.
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